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European Pro League Season 30 · BO3
result vs prediction
TNL DOTAloss 0:2
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Kalmychatawin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TNL DOTA

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Norma · 24 games
71%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Fernans · 23 games
57%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Fernans · 21 game
38%
Marci
Marcisignature
Fernans · 18 games
67%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
dualrazee · 17 games
53%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Fernans · 14 games
64%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
flacko · 13 games
92%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
yowaai · 13 games
54%

Kalmychata

Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 18 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
Ankou · 16 games
63%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
rincyq · 15 games
67%
Leshrac
Leshrac
Ethereal · 14 games
57%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
WoE · 14 games
64%
Sven
Svensignature
rincyq · 13 games
62%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
raregods · 12 games
67%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Ethereal · 12 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
317 picks · 204 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
296 picks · 669 bans
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
265 picks · 119 bans
46%
Tusk
Tusk
257 picks · 257 bans
46%
Batrider
Batrider
255 picks · 686 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
254 picks · 598 bans
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
250 picks · 508 bans
57%
Marci
Marci
241 picks · 506 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 57%
Hero pool strength51% TNL DOTA
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total70% TNL DOTA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:30
TNL DOTA 61%Kalmychata 39%
The model gave 61% on TNL DOTA — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 53:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinyowaai
53% · 127 games52% · 168 games
MedusaWoE
Medusa
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fienddualrazee
54% · 176 games43% · 174 games
Queen of PainEthereal
Queen of Pain
Magnus
MagnusNorma
61% · 103 games49% · 47 games
SlardarAnkou
Slardar
Hoodwink
HoodwinkFernans
51% · 106 games39% · 132 games
DisruptorHtrd
Disruptor
Pugna
PugnaCeMaTheSlayeR
56% · 159 games44% · 150 games
Snapfireraregods
Snapfire
Game 2prediction missed20:34
TNL DOTA 61%Kalmychata 39%
The model gave 61% on TNL DOTA — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 40:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-Mageyowaai
56% · 24 games48% · 21 game
SpectreWoE
Spectre
Queen of Pain
Queen of Paindualrazee
54% · 92 games50% · 36 games
HuskarEthereal
Huskar
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNorma
51% · 193 games55% · 179 games
Sand KingAnkou
Sand King
Tusk
TuskFernans
48% · 196 games46% · 143 games
Snapfireraregods
Snapfire
Disruptor
DisruptorCeMaTheSlayeR
44% · 84 games50% · 210 games
WarlockHtrd
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoriteTNL DOTA · 70%
Series resultKalmychata 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2