CCT Season 2 Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
TNL DOTAloss 1:2series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Quantum Teamwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
TNL DOTA
Kunkkaoften banned
Norma · 5 games
Dark Willow
Fernans · 4 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
yowaai · 4 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Norma · 3 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Norma · 3 games
Disruptor
flacko · 3 games
Doomoften banned
yowaai · 3 games
Shadow Fiend
dualrazee · 3 games
Quantum Team
Tinyoften banned
Rvze · 16 games
Batrideroften banned
Fezor · 13 games
Tidehunteroften banned
takizawa · 12 games
Phantom Assassinoften banned
bashka · 11 games
Brewmastersignature
Palantimos · 10 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Rvze · 10 games
Invokeroften banned
Rvze · 10 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Lukas · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
559 picks · 632 bans
Ringmaster
482 picks · 247 bans
Jakiro
457 picks · 425 bans
Terrorblade
397 picks · 838 bans
Storm Spirit
373 picks · 555 bans
Shadow Shaman
368 picks · 425 bans
Tusk
368 picks · 324 bans
Ancient Apparition
355 picks · 829 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 38%
Hero pool strength52% TNL DOTA
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% TNL DOTA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:13
TNL DOTA 54%Quantum Team 46%
The model gave 54% on TNL DOTA — the game was taken by TNL DOTA in 35:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiendyowaai
TerrorbladeLukas
Tinydualrazee
Centaur WarrunnerPalantimos
Dark SeerNorma
Queen of PainAinkrad
JakiroFernans
Invokeremptiness
Naga Sirenflacko
DisruptorMary_y
Game 2prediction missed14:31
TNL DOTA 52%Quantum Team 48%
The model gave 52% on TNL DOTA — the game was taken by Quantum Team in 32:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphlingyowaai
Templar AssassinLukas
Death ProphetNorma
TimbersawAinkrad
Tinydualrazee
BristlebackPalantimos
Phoenixflacko
Invokeremptiness
TuskFernans
JakiroMary_y
Game 3prediction correct35:34
TNL DOTA 49%Quantum Team 51%
The model gave 51% on Quantum Team — the game was taken by Quantum Team in 52:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fienddualrazee
Storm SpiritAinkrad
Templar Assassinyowaai
Drow RangerLukas
KunkkaNorma
BristlebackPalantimos
HoodwinkFernans
Jakiroemptiness
Tuskflacko
Naga SirenMary_y
Model check result
Model favoriteTNL DOTA · 54%
Series resultQuantum Team 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 3