CCT Season 2 Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
TNL DOTAwin 2:1series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Runa Teamloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
TNL DOTA
Chaos Knight
Fernans · 2 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Norma · 2 games
Marci
yowaai · 2 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
yowaai · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
dualrazee · 1 game
Centaur Warrunner
Norma · 1 game
Chen
flacko · 1 game
Disruptor
flacko · 1 game
Runa Team
Windranger
queezy · 26 games
Tinysignature
nicky`cool · 18 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Hduo · 14 games
Ringmastersignature
Hduo · 12 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Alberkaaa · 11 games
Batridersignature
queezy · 10 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 10 games
Silencer
Hduo · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
520 picks · 598 bans
Ringmaster
470 picks · 237 bans
Jakiro
467 picks · 433 bans
Terrorblade
369 picks · 765 bans
Storm Spirit
347 picks · 505 bans
Ancient Apparition
339 picks · 787 bans
Tusk
325 picks · 294 bans
Shadow Shaman
308 picks · 336 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 55%
Hero pool strength51% Runa Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Runa Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:24
TNL DOTA 43%Runa Team 57%
The model gave 57% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 51:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorbladeyowaai
Drow RangerShigetsu
DawnbreakerNorma
Keeper of the Lightnicky`cool
Void Spiritdualrazee
BeastmasterAlberkaaa
WindrangerFernans
Shadow Demonqueezy
Oracleflacko
Naga SirenHduo
Game 2prediction missed15:13
TNL DOTA 43%Runa Team 57%
The model gave 57% on Runa Team — the game was taken by TNL DOTA in 35:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphlingyowaai
Keeper of the Lightnicky`cool
BeastmasterNorma
Templar AssassinShigetsu
Ember Spiritdualrazee
TidehunterAlberkaaa
Dark WillowFernans
Windrangerqueezy
Phoenixflacko
OracleHduo
Game 3prediction missed37:13
TNL DOTA 42%Runa Team 58%
The model gave 58% on Runa Team — the game was taken by TNL DOTA in 34:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassinyowaai
UrsaShigetsu
Shadow Fienddualrazee
Death Prophetnicky`cool
KunkkaNorma
AxeAlberkaaa
Ancient Apparitionflacko
Snapfirequeezy
Dark WillowFernans
Naga SirenHduo
Model check result
Model favoriteRuna Team · 61%
Series resultTNL DOTA 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3