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European Pro League Season 28 · BO3
result vs prediction
TNL DOTAwin 2:1
series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Lynxloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TNL DOTA

Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Fernans · 15 games
60%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
dualrazee · 15 games
47%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Fernans · 14 games
36%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
dualrazee · 11 games
45%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Norma · 11 games
64%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
flacko · 9 games
44%
Batrider
Batridersignature
dualrazee · 8 games
75%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Norma · 8 games
75%

Team Lynx

Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
StoneBank · 6 games
17%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
StoneBank · 5 games
60%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
StoneBank · 4 games
0%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
DarkLord^ · 4 games
25%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
DarkLord^ · 3 games
33%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
DarkLord^ · 3 games
0%
Wraith King
Wraith King
StoneBank · 3 games
33%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
StoneBank · 2 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
500 picks · 536 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
413 picks · 430 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
352 picks · 359 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
340 picks · 505 bans
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
321 picks · 700 bans
46%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
298 picks · 174 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
297 picks · 434 bans
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
296 picks · 189 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 32%
Hero pool strength60% TNL DOTA
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total82% TNL DOTA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
TNL DOTA 82%Team Lynx 18%
The model gave 82% on TNL DOTA — the game was taken by TNL DOTA.
Game 2prediction missed
TNL DOTA 82%Team Lynx 18%
The model gave 82% on TNL DOTA — the game was taken by Team Lynx.
Game 3prediction correct
TNL DOTA 82%Team Lynx 18%
The model gave 82% on TNL DOTA — the game was taken by TNL DOTA.
Model check result
Model favoriteTNL DOTA · 82%
Series resultTNL DOTA 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3