PGL Wallachia Season 2. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionTTokyoGhoullwin 2:1
series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 2:1
TiltedBoysloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
TokyoGhoull
No games played over 6 months.
TiltedBoys
Clinkz
bgod · 2 games
Bounty Hunter
bgod · 1 game
Hoodwinkoften banned
bgod · 1 game
Pudgeoften banned
bgod · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
408 picks · 442 bans
Rubick
407 picks · 325 bans
Weaver
389 picks · 824 bans
Tiny
381 picks · 878 bans
Phoenix
361 picks · 719 bans
Pangolier
339 picks · 516 bans
Clockwerk
336 picks · 486 bans
Dragon Knight
299 picks · 539 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% TiltedBoys
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% TiltedBoys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:18
TokyoGhoull 30%TiltedBoys 70%
The model gave 70% on TiltedBoys — the game was taken by TokyoGhoull in 28:59.
Game 2prediction correct45:18
TokyoGhoull 30%TiltedBoys 70%
The model gave 70% on TiltedBoys — the game was taken by TiltedBoys in 31:54.
Game 3prediction missed29:40
TokyoGhoull 30%TiltedBoys 70%
The model gave 70% on TiltedBoys — the game was taken by TokyoGhoull in 44:58.
Model check result
Model favoriteTiltedBoys · 70%
Series resultTokyoGhoull 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3