FISSURE Universe: Episode 4. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionTTToLight Teamwin 2:0
series probability
22%78%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Spiky Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
ToLight Team
No games played over 6 months.
Spiky Gaming
Muerta
TK · 15 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Hara · 9 games
Bristlebackoften banned
生死 · 8 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
生死 · 8 games
Doomoften banned
生死 · 8 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 8 games
Dark Willow
TK · 7 games
Puckoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
470 picks · 587 bans
Muerta
464 picks · 399 bans
Batrider
450 picks · 561 bans
Clockwerk
431 picks · 533 bans
Gyrocopter
419 picks · 775 bans
Tiny
417 picks · 469 bans
Magnus
400 picks · 877 bans
Lion
397 picks · 233 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 46%
Hero pool strength55% ToLight Team
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total78% Spiky Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
ToLight Team 22%Spiky Gaming 78%
The model gave 78% on Spiky Gaming — the game was taken by ToLight Team.
Game 2prediction missed
ToLight Team 22%Spiky Gaming 78%
The model gave 78% on Spiky Gaming — the game was taken by ToLight Team.
Model check result
Model favoriteSpiky Gaming · 78%
Series resultToLight Team 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2