DreamLeague Season 27. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionTToLightwin 2:0
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:0
CGCFU Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
ToLight
No games played over 6 months.
CFU Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
289 picks · 692 bans
Shadow Shaman
280 picks · 177 bans
Disruptor
256 picks · 223 bans
Dawnbreaker
254 picks · 652 bans
Tusk
249 picks · 253 bans
Dark Willow
246 picks · 105 bans
Marci
245 picks · 604 bans
Nature's Prophet
242 picks · 546 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 33%
Hero pool strength50% ToLight
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% ToLight
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed3:17
ToLight 69%CFU Gaming 31%
The model gave 69% on ToLight — the game was taken by CFU Gaming in 22:55.
Game 2prediction missed18:39
ToLight 69%CFU Gaming 31%
The model gave 69% on ToLight — the game was taken by CFU Gaming in 43:47.
Model check result
Model favoriteToLight · 69%
Series resultToLight 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2