Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Китай. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionTToLightloss 1:2
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:2
iG Vitalitywin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
ToLight
Axe
kaidou · 1 game
Crystal Maiden
谢乐zzz张泽中 · 1 game
Iooften banned
谢乐zzz张泽中 · 1 game
Underlordoften banned
kaidou · 1 game
iG Vitality
Jakiro
Sj · 12 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
ukiyo · 11 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Ash · 9 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
ukiyo · 9 games
Undyingoften banned
Sj · 8 games
Disruptor
Drink · 7 games
Pangolieroften banned
Ash · 7 games
Tusksignature
Drink · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
759 picks · 606 bans
Disruptor
548 picks · 465 bans
Beastmaster
423 picks · 996 bans
Tiny
418 picks · 380 bans
Ember Spirit
395 picks · 938 bans
Nature's Prophet
390 picks · 667 bans
Undying
390 picks · 601 bans
Doom
389 picks · 589 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 47%
Hero pool strength56% iG Vitality
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% iG Vitality
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:26
ToLight 52%iG Vitality 48%
The model gave 52% on ToLight — the game was taken by ToLight in 35:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doomkaidou
Ursaukiyo
Disruptor谢乐zzz张泽中
Centaur WarrunnerTzy
48% · 91 game
Storm SpiritButterflyEffect
45% · 40 games
TechiesHara
44% · 153 games
UndyingPonyo
Game 2prediction correct12:35
ToLight 47%iG Vitality 53%
The model gave 53% on iG Vitality — the game was taken by iG Vitality in 25:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Underlordkaidou
Medusaukiyo
Crystal Maiden谢乐zzz张泽中
DoomTzy
59% · 56 games
Storm SpiritButterflyEffect
66% · 34 games
PugnaHara
42% · 102 games
DisruptorPonyo
Game 3prediction missed13:31
ToLight 52%iG Vitality 48%
The model gave 52% on ToLight — the game was taken by iG Vitality in 32:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doomkaidou
Chaos Knightukiyo
Mirana谢乐zzz张泽中
Shadow FiendButterflyEffect
55% · 52 games
Centaur WarrunnerTzy
44% · 42 games
TechiesHara
47% · 133 games
UndyingPonyo
Model check result
Model favoriteiG Vitality · 51%
Series resultiG Vitality 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3