ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionTToLightloss 0:2
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 0:2
IIgnitewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
ToLight
Crystal Maiden
谢乐zzz张泽中 · 2 games
Doomoften banned
kaidou · 2 games
Underlord
kaidou · 2 games
Axe
kaidou · 1 game
Disruptor
谢乐zzz张泽中 · 1 game
Iooften banned
谢乐zzz张泽中 · 1 game
Mirana
谢乐zzz张泽中 · 1 game
Ignite
Phoenixoften banned
Ponlo · 2 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Deth · 2 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
QYQX · 1 game
Earth Spiritoften banned
Dust · 1 game
Kunkkaoften banned
Dust · 1 game
Muertaoften banned
Ulu · 1 game
Queen of Painoften banned
Dust · 1 game
Rubick
Ponlo · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
217 picks · 271 bans
Grimstroke
185 picks · 195 bans
Pangolier
183 picks · 389 bans
Dark Willow
182 picks · 76 bans
Earthshaker
169 picks · 168 bans
Sven
169 picks · 248 bans
Earth Spirit
154 picks · 249 bans
Phoenix
154 picks · 207 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 40%
Hero pool strength53% Ignite
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% ToLight
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:40
ToLight 54%Ignite 46%
The model gave 54% on ToLight — the game was taken by Ignite in 33:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ancient Apparition谢乐zzz张泽中
Shadow FiendDust
38% · 4 games
MuertaUlu
44% · 5 games
Primal BeastDeth
62% · 9 games
Treant ProtectorQYQX
31% · 12 games
Vengeful SpiritPonlo
Game 2prediction missed10:33
ToLight 54%Ignite 46%
The model gave 54% on ToLight — the game was taken by Ignite in 33:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tusk谢乐zzz张泽中
Shadow FiendDust
46% · 31 game
Chaos KnightUlu
44% · 108 games
SnapfireDeth
60% · 6 games
ChenQYQX
35% · 27 games
KunkkaPonlo
Model check result
Model favoriteToLight · 55%
Series resultIgnite 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2