Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionTSTotally Spieswin 2:0
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
SESMARACIS eSportloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Totally Spies
No games played over 6 months.
SMARACIS eSport
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Void Spirit
24 picks · 32 bans
Mars
23 picks · 51 bans
Puck
21 picks · 57 bans
Earth Spirit
17 picks · 15 bans
Ember Spirit
17 picks · 18 bans
Monkey King
17 picks · 28 bans
Mirana
15 picks · 17 bans
Undying
15 picks · 32 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Totally Spies
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Totally Spies
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:24
Totally Spies 50%SMARACIS eSport 50%
The model gave 50% on Totally Spies — the game was taken by Totally Spies in 32:33.
Game 2prediction correct37:27
Totally Spies 50%SMARACIS eSport 50%
The model gave 50% on Totally Spies — the game was taken by Totally Spies in 42:37.
Model check result
Model favoriteTotally Spies · 50%
Series resultTotally Spies 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2