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The International 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Trailer Park Boysloss 1:2
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Tech Free Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Trailer Park Boys

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
CHYuan · 4 games
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
NARMAN · 4 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
423 · 4 games
25%
Mars
Marsoften banned
eleven · 3 games
67%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
eleven · 3 games
67%
Tusk
Tusk
NARMAN · 3 games
33%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunter
NARMAN · 2 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
CHYuan · 2 games
50%

Tech Free Gaming

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
TraVins · 11 games
55%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
MamangDaya · 7 games
71%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
dalul · 7 games
29%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Varizh · 6 games
50%
Razor
Razor
TraVins · 6 games
50%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
db- · 5 games
40%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
TraVins · 5 games
40%
Silencer
Silencer
Varizh · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
555 picks · 615 bans
51%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
479 picks · 240 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
462 picks · 434 bans
49%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
394 picks · 805 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
360 picks · 539 bans
52%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
355 picks · 811 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
351 picks · 313 bans
49%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
346 picks · 394 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 56%
Hero pool strength52% Tech Free Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total66% Trailer Park Boys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:8
Trailer Park Boys 57%Tech Free Gaming 43%
The model gave 57% on Trailer Park Boys — the game was taken by Trailer Park Boys in 31:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Meepo
Meepo423
65% · 13 games52% · 149 games
MorphlingTraVins
Morphling
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendSancity
47% · 88 games45% · 82 games
Centaur Warrunnerdb-
Centaur Warrunner
Axe
Axeeleven
43% · 38 games57% · 149 games
Storm SpiritMamangDaya
Storm Spirit
Batrider
BatriderNARMAN
51% · 274 games63% · 69 games
Shadow Shamandalul
Shadow Shaman
Disruptor
DisruptorSe
40% · 49 games37% · 13 games
SilencerVarizh
Silencer
Game 2prediction missed10:38
Trailer Park Boys 57%Tech Free Gaming 43%
The model gave 57% on Trailer Park Boys — the game was taken by Tech Free Gaming in 31:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend423
51% · 125 games53% · 180 games
GyrocopterTraVins
Gyrocopter
Axe
Axeeleven
56% · 28 games43% · 311 games
Pangolierdb-
Pangolier
Puck
PuckSancity
49% · 227 games49% · 100 games
Void SpiritMamangDaya
Void Spirit
Dark Willow
Dark WillowNARMAN
49% · 256 games44% · 25 games
Pudgedalul
Pudge
Naga Siren
Naga SirenSe
55% · 86 games52% · 106 games
Crystal MaidenVarizh
Crystal Maiden
Game 3prediction missed17:27
Trailer Park Boys 59%Tech Free Gaming 41%
The model gave 59% on Trailer Park Boys — the game was taken by Tech Free Gaming in 38:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter423
50% · 225 games46% · 373 games
Dragon KnightTraVins
Dragon Knight
Brewmaster
Brewmastereleven
41% · 75 games50% · 183 games
PuckMamangDaya
Puck
Tiny
TinySancity
51% · 412 games45% · 50 games
Axedb-
Axe
Naga Siren
Naga SirenSe
55% · 93 games60% · 225 games
Shadow Shamandalul
Shadow Shaman
Ringmaster
RingmasterNARMAN
48% · 197 games51% · 171 game
Ancient ApparitionVarizh
Ancient Apparition
Model check result
Model favoriteTrailer Park Boys · 66%
Series resultTech Free Gaming 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3