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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — СНГ 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Trident Clanloss 1:2
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Fantastic Fivewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Trident Clan

Mirana
Mirana
SoulEater · 3 games
0%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
xn丶e · 3 games
33%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Corrupted · 2 games
0%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
antoha · 2 games
0%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
Munkushi~ · 2 games
0%
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lanceroften banned
Munkushi~ · 2 games
0%
Rubick
Rubick
SoulEater · 2 games
50%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Corrupted · 2 games
50%

Fantastic Five

Puck
Puckoften banned
Askold · 5 games
20%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Muka · 4 games
25%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
633 · 4 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Askold · 4 games
25%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
SuperNova · 4 games
25%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Muka · 3 games
0%
Tusk
Tusk
Muka · 3 games
0%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Askold · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
409 picks · 951 bans
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
371 picks · 531 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
347 picks · 704 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
334 picks · 548 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
319 picks · 321 bans
47%
Tusk
Tusk
296 picks · 219 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
290 picks · 160 bans
47%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
271 picks · 278 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)30% vs 38%
Hero pool strength52% Trident Clan
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Fantastic Five
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:37
Trident Clan 48%Fantastic Five 52%
The model gave 52% on Fantastic Five — the game was taken by Fantastic Five in 44:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingMunkushi~
59% · 38 games50% · 6 games
NecrophosSuperNova
Necrophos
Puck
PuckPikachu
47% · 120 games46% · 85 games
TinyAskold
Tiny
Mars
MarsCorrupted
53% · 83 games50% · 46 games
Ancient Apparition633
Ancient Apparition
Rubick
RubickSoulEater
43% · 49 games44% · 193 games
LionMuka
Lion
Elder Titan
Elder Titanantoha
69% · 40 games
Game 2prediction missed15:13
Trident Clan 47%Fantastic Five 53%
The model gave 53% on Fantastic Five — the game was taken by Trident Clan in 27:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenMunkushi~
47% · 11 games52% · 100 games
Void SpiritAskold
Void Spirit
Leshrac
LeshracPikachu
47% · 59 games59% · 40 games
Centaur WarrunnerSuperNova
Centaur Warrunner
Sand King
Sand KingCorrupted
39% · 38 games57% · 19 games
LinaMuka
Lina
Mirana
MiranaSoulEater
52% · 62 games53% · 97 games
Grimstroke633
Grimstroke
Oracle
Oracleantoha
43% · 86 games
Game 3prediction correct14:30
Trident Clan 49%Fantastic Five 51%
The model gave 51% on Fantastic Five — the game was taken by Fantastic Five in 33:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracPikachu
54% · 43 games45% · 127 games
Void SpiritAskold
Void Spirit
Monkey King
Monkey KingMunkushi~
59% · 70 games49% · 49 games
TidehunterSuperNova
Tidehunter
Slardar
SlardarCorrupted
58% · 22 games42% · 40 games
Dark WillowMuka
Dark Willow
Lion
LionSoulEater
48% · 78 games49% · 65 games
Snapfire633
Snapfire
Elder Titan
Elder Titanantoha
53% · 68 games
Model check result
Model favoriteFantastic Five · 55%
Series resultFantastic Five 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3