Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — СНГ 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Trident Clanloss 0:2series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 0:2
HellRaiserswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Trident Clan
No games played over 6 months.
HellRaisers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
440 picks · 967 bans
Void Spirit
419 picks · 585 bans
Death Prophet
365 picks · 680 bans
Mars
344 picks · 598 bans
Earth Spirit
314 picks · 285 bans
Tusk
279 picks · 180 bans
Grimstroke
267 picks · 232 bans
Phoenix
267 picks · 388 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 59%
Hero pool strength50% Trident Clan
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% HellRaisers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct3:24
Trident Clan 33%HellRaisers 67%
The model gave 67% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 25:57.
Game 2prediction correct18:33
Trident Clan 33%HellRaisers 67%
The model gave 67% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 35:38.
Model check result
Model favoriteHellRaisers · 67%
Series resultHellRaisers 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2