Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Восточная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs prediction
Triseumwin 2:1series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 2:1
kefteme.mp3loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Triseum
No games played over 6 months.
kefteme.mp3
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
776 picks · 585 bans
Disruptor
549 picks · 439 bans
Tiny
441 picks · 376 bans
Nature's Prophet
414 picks · 689 bans
Beastmaster
411 picks · 957 bans
Undying
401 picks · 587 bans
Mirana
388 picks · 207 bans
Ember Spirit
386 picks · 893 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Triseum
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% kefteme.mp3
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:13
Triseum 40%kefteme.mp3 60%
The model gave 60% on kefteme.mp3 — the game was taken by Triseum in 41:17.
Game 2prediction correct12:23
Triseum 40%kefteme.mp3 60%
The model gave 60% on kefteme.mp3 — the game was taken by kefteme.mp3 in 24:04.
Game 3prediction missed13:40
Triseum 40%kefteme.mp3 60%
The model gave 60% on kefteme.mp3 — the game was taken by Triseum in 48:29.
Model check result
Model favoritekefteme.mp3 · 60%
Series resultTriseum 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3