Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Восточная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Triseumloss 0:2series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Not one step back gamingwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Triseum
Muertaoften banned
Ark · 1 game
Not one step back gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
771 picks · 603 bans
Disruptor
548 picks · 452 bans
Tiny
437 picks · 382 bans
Beastmaster
417 picks · 975 bans
Nature's Prophet
401 picks · 680 bans
Undying
399 picks · 594 bans
Ember Spirit
392 picks · 916 bans
Mirana
389 picks · 210 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 67%
Hero pool strength53% Triseum
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Not one step back gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:23
Triseum 43%Not one step back gaming 57%
The model gave 57% on Not one step back gaming — the game was taken by Not one step back gaming in 32:03.
Game 2prediction correct33:49
Triseum 43%Not one step back gaming 57%
The model gave 57% on Not one step back gaming — the game was taken by Not one step back gaming in 44:28.
Model check result
Model favoriteNot one step back gaming · 57%
Series resultNot one step back gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2