Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Южная Америка. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
TRocketloss 1:2series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Lavawin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
TRocket
Broodmotheroften banned
Greedy · 3 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Greedy · 1 game
Crystal Maiden
Pamplona · 1 game
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Pamplona · 1 game
Enchantressoften banned
Pamplona · 1 game
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Pamplona · 1 game
Razoroften banned
Greedy · 1 game
Undyingoften banned
Pamplona · 1 game
Lava
Enchantressoften banned
JimmyCoff666 · 2 games
Ogre Magi
JimmyCoff666 · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
371 picks · 346 bans
Tusk
331 picks · 309 bans
Marci
269 picks · 506 bans
Pangolier
251 picks · 569 bans
Undying
247 picks · 466 bans
Primal Beast
239 picks · 601 bans
Snapfire
219 picks · 126 bans
Shadow Fiend
216 picks · 347 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 67%
Hero pool strength53% TRocket
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% Lava
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:7
TRocket 44%Lava 56%
The model gave 56% on Lava — the game was taken by TRocket in 27:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UnderlordGreedy
LichJimmyCoff666
Crystal MaidenPamplona
Game 2prediction correct43:76
TRocket 44%Lava 56%
The model gave 56% on Lava — the game was taken by Lava in 1:46:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetGreedy
UndyingJimmyCoff666
Spirit BreakerPamplona
Game 3prediction correct43:43
TRocket 40%Lava 60%
The model gave 60% on Lava — the game was taken by Lava in 1:04:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TidehunterGreedy
UndyingJimmyCoff666
SnapfirePamplona
Model check result
Model favoriteLava · 67%
Series resultLava 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3