Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Южная Америка. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
TRocketloss 0:2series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Silkwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
TRocket
Broodmotheroften banned
Greedy · 3 games
Crystal Maiden
Pamplona · 3 games
Beastmasteroften banned
H1j4ck · 2 games
Underlordoften banned
H1j4ck · 2 games
Undyingoften banned
Pamplona · 2 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
CarJua · 1 game
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Pamplona · 1 game
Enchantress
Pamplona · 1 game
Silk
Doomoften banned
payk · 2 games
Linaoften banned
payk · 2 games
Drow Rangeroften banned
payk · 1 game
Faceless Voidoften banned
payk · 1 game
Lycanoften banned
Lissex · 1 game
Monkey Kingoften banned
payk · 1 game
Morphlingoften banned
payk · 1 game
Primal Beastoften banned
Lissex · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
725 picks · 465 bans
Treant Protector
523 picks · 566 bans
Tusk
523 picks · 451 bans
Tiny
522 picks · 383 bans
Nature's Prophet
406 picks · 570 bans
Snapfire
379 picks · 248 bans
Death Prophet
368 picks · 594 bans
Ember Spirit
344 picks · 731 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 57%
Hero pool strength53% TRocket
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total62% Silk
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct6:34
TRocket 48%Silk 52%
The model gave 52% on Silk — the game was taken by Silk in 32:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom LancerCarJua
Sand KingLissex
Dragon KnightH1j4ck
RubickPamplona
JakiroAretes
Game 2prediction correct13:24
TRocket 44%Silk 56%
The model gave 56% on Silk — the game was taken by Silk in 43:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom LancerCarJua
BeastmasterLissex
Primal BeastH1j4ck
SilencerPamplona
EnchantressAretes
Model check result
Model favoriteSilk · 62%
Series resultSilk 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2