Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
TSMwin 2:0series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:0
beastcoastloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
TSM
Rubicksignature
Ari · 43 games
Beastmasteroften banned
kasane · 25 games
Lycansignature
kasane · 18 games
Disruptor
Whitemon · 16 games
Undyingsignature
Whitemon · 15 games
Death Prophetsignature
kasane · 14 games
Terrorbladesignature
Timado · 14 games
Batridersignature
Ari · 13 games
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
639 picks · 691 bans
Rubick
494 picks · 321 bans
Doom
450 picks · 986 bans
Ember Spirit
403 picks · 856 bans
Batrider
399 picks · 938 bans
Void Spirit
392 picks · 353 bans
Beastmaster
381 picks · 1007 bans
Pugna
379 picks · 450 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)26% vs 33%
Hero pool strength54% TSM
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total56% beastcoast
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:12
TSM 44%beastcoast 56%
The model gave 56% on beastcoast — the game was taken by TSM in 30:56.
Game 2prediction missed37:27
TSM 44%beastcoast 56%
The model gave 56% on beastcoast — the game was taken by TSM in 57:34.
Model check result
Model favoritebeastcoast · 56%
Series resultTSM 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2