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ESL One Berlin Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
TSMloss 0:2
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 0:2
BETBOOM TEAMwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TSM

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Ari · 27 games
70%
Lycan
Lycansignature
kasane · 17 games
71%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
kasane · 15 games
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
kasane · 14 games
79%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Whitemon · 12 games
50%
Riki
Rikioften banned
Ari · 10 games
50%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Ari · 10 games
80%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Whitemon · 10 games
60%

BETBOOM TEAM

Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Nightfall · 18 games
61%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Save- · 15 games
60%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 13 games
77%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
gpK~ · 13 games
69%
Tiny
Tiny
Save- · 12 games
58%
Mirana
Miranasignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 11 games
73%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Nightfall · 9 games
44%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Save- · 9 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
996 picks · 696 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
640 picks · 466 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
578 picks · 930 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
552 picks · 410 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
532 picks · 409 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
527 picks · 370 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
518 picks · 1210 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
497 picks · 385 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 41%
Hero pool strength51% BETBOOM TEAM
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% BETBOOM TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:34
TSM 46%BETBOOM TEAM 54%
The model gave 54% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 36:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenTimado
56% · 65 games36% · 14 games
Phantom LancerNightfall
Phantom Lancer
Void Spirit
Void Spiritbryle-
46% · 71 game41% · 189 games
EnchantressResolut1on
Enchantress
Timbersaw
Timbersawkasane
59% · 118 games42% · 201 game
Ember SpiritgpK~
Ember Spirit
Chen
ChenWhitemon
59% · 95 games51% · 65 games
JakiroTORONTOTOKYO
Jakiro
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenAri
58% · 207 games46% · 87 games
PudgeSave-
Pudge
Game 2prediction correct10:22
TSM 42%BETBOOM TEAM 58%
The model gave 58% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 30:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinTimado
45% · 137 games44% · 32 games
Phantom LancerNightfall
Phantom Lancer
Alchemist
Alchemistkasane
62% · 63 games46% · 63 games
UnderlordResolut1on
Underlord
Void Spirit
Void Spiritbryle-
36% · 54 games44% · 69 games
Primal BeastgpK~
Primal Beast
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightAri
53% · 104 games66% · 71 game
ChenTORONTOTOKYO
Chen
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageWhitemon
56% · 98 games44% · 221 game
RubickSave-
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteBETBOOM TEAM · 61%
Series resultBETBOOM TEAM 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2