The International 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
TSMloss 1:1series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Entityloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
TSM
Tiny
bryle- · 14 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
SabeRLight- · 13 games
Enchantresssignature
DuBu · 13 games
Puckoften banned
bryle- · 12 games
Chenoften banned
DuBu · 10 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
MoonMeander · 10 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Timado · 10 games
Chaos Knightsignature
Timado · 9 games
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
514 picks · 399 bans
Marci
457 picks · 699 bans
Death Prophet
304 picks · 468 bans
Puck
288 picks · 700 bans
Undying
286 picks · 489 bans
Dawnbreaker
279 picks · 397 bans
Snapfire
255 picks · 132 bans
Batrider
253 picks · 874 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)30% vs 54%
Hero pool strength52% TSM
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total63% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:3
TSM 37%Entity 63%
The model gave 63% on Entity — the game was taken by TSM in 32:30.
Game 2prediction correct20:27
TSM 37%Entity 63%
The model gave 63% on Entity — the game was taken by Entity in 41:17.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 63%
Accuracy by game1 of 2