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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Северная Америка. Финал · BO5
result vs prediction
TSMwin 3:2
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 3:2
Evil Geniusesloss 2:3
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TSM

Bane
Bane
DuBu · 14 games
57%
Weaver
Weaversignature
MoonMeander · 10 games
70%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
bryle- · 9 games
56%
Mirana
Miranasignature
MoonMeander · 8 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
SabeRLight- · 8 games
38%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
SabeRLight- · 7 games
86%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
DuBu · 6 games
67%
Io
Iosignature
MoonMeander · 6 games
83%

Evil Geniuses

Mars
Marsoften banned
Tavo · 10 games
10%
Io
Iooften banned
KJ · 9 games
11%
Mirana
Mirana
Thiolicor · 8 games
38%
Sven
Svensignature
Costabile · 8 games
63%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Costabile · 7 games
0%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Hyko · 6 games
17%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
4dr · 6 games
50%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
KJ · 6 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
550 picks · 383 bans
57%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
461 picks · 556 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
450 picks · 636 bans
52%
Weaver
Weaver
432 picks · 826 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
359 picks · 180 bans
44%
Kunkka
Kunkka
342 picks · 534 bans
54%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
340 picks · 568 bans
52%
Wraith King
Wraith King
280 picks · 323 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 60%
Hero pool strength67% TSM
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total57% TSM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:37
TSM 57%Evil Geniuses 43%
The model gave 57% on TSM — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 57:35.
Game 2prediction correct35:25
TSM 57%Evil Geniuses 43%
The model gave 57% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 41:06.
Game 3prediction missed20:25
TSM 57%Evil Geniuses 43%
The model gave 57% on TSM — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 44:09.
Game 4prediction correct25:11
TSM 57%Evil Geniuses 43%
The model gave 57% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 37:48.
Game 5prediction correct25:13
TSM 57%Evil Geniuses 43%
The model gave 57% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 38:49.
Model check result
Model favoriteTSM · 57%
Series resultTSM 3:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 5