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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
TSMwin 2:1
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Evil Geniusesloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TSM

Bane
Banesignature
DuBu · 14 games
79%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
DuBu · 8 games
75%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
bryle- · 8 games
88%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Timado · 8 games
88%
Weaver
Weaversignature
MoonMeander · 7 games
86%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
MoonMeander · 6 games
67%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
bryle- · 6 games
83%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
bryle- · 6 games
83%

Evil Geniuses

Bane
Banesignature
Wij · 7 games
71%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Hyko · 6 games
0%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakersignature
Hyko · 6 games
83%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Parker · 5 games
40%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Hyko · 5 games
40%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
Wij · 4 games
0%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Hyko · 3 games
33%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Wij · 3 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
447 picks · 268 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
403 picks · 557 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
320 picks · 630 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
319 picks · 369 bans
51%
Weaver
Weaver
304 picks · 387 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
284 picks · 409 bans
51%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
274 picks · 447 bans
53%
Sand King
Sand King
268 picks · 324 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 67%
Hero pool strength67% TSM
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total51% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:14
TSM 49%Evil Geniuses 51%
The model gave 51% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by TSM in 46:45.
Game 2prediction missed0:0
TSM 49%Evil Geniuses 51%
The model gave 51% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by TSM in 52:27.
Game 3prediction missed28:19
TSM 49%Evil Geniuses 51%
The model gave 51% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by TSM in 46:59.
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 51%
Series resultTSM 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3