DreamLeague Season 19 · BO2
result vs prediction
TSMloss 1:1series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 1:1
ex-HellRaisersloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
TSM
Rubicksignature
Ari · 20 games
Death Prophetsignature
kasane · 12 games
Leshracoften banned
bryle- · 11 games
Lycansignature
kasane · 11 games
Undyingoften banned
Whitemon · 11 games
Marcisignature
Timado · 10 games
Rikioften banned
Ari · 10 games
Beastmastersignature
kasane · 9 games
ex-HellRaisers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
978 picks · 663 bans
Tiny
661 picks · 476 bans
Nature's Prophet
588 picks · 940 bans
Tusk
557 picks · 439 bans
Treant Protector
527 picks · 522 bans
Snapfire
521 picks · 349 bans
Death Prophet
508 picks · 1115 bans
Clockwerk
478 picks · 354 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 46%
Hero pool strength56% TSM
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% TSM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:44
TSM 57%ex-HellRaisers 43%
The model gave 57% on TSM — the game was taken by ex-HellRaisers in 1:03:21.
Game 2prediction correct32:22
TSM 57%ex-HellRaisers 43%
The model gave 57% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 47:26.
Model check result
Model favoriteTSM · 57%
Accuracy by game1 of 2