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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Северная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
TSMwin 2:0
series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Lucky Birdloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TSM

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
SabeRLight- · 10 games
40%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
bryle- · 8 games
38%
Tiny
Tiny
bryle- · 8 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
bryle- · 7 games
57%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
DuBu · 7 games
71%
Chen
Chen
DuBu · 6 games
33%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
MoonMeander · 6 games
50%
Marci
Marcisignature
kasane · 6 games
67%

Lucky Bird

Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Rises · 6 games
0%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
FrancisLee · 6 games
33%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
BlackSoul · 6 games
0%
Puck
Puckoften banned
BlackSoul · 5 games
40%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Wij · 5 games
40%
Tiny
Tiny
BlackSoul · 5 games
20%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Rises · 5 games
40%
Rubick
Rubick
Wij · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
376 picks · 362 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
336 picks · 333 bans
49%
Rubick
Rubick
297 picks · 215 bans
58%
Mirana
Mirana
270 picks · 272 bans
53%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
195 picks · 145 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
190 picks · 106 bans
48%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
185 picks · 243 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
182 picks · 502 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 27%
Hero pool strength59% TSM
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total88% TSM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:9
TSM 75%Lucky Bird 25%
The model gave 75% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 19:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Batrider
Batriderbryle-
49% · 111 games54% · 103 games
ZeusBlackSoul
Zeus
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightTimado
47% · 122 games49% · 104 games
BloodseekerRises
Bloodseeker
Broodmother
Broodmotherkasane
47% · 69 games46% · 219 games
HoodwinkWij
Hoodwink
Snapfire
SnapfireAri
48% · 193 games52% · 159 games
Crystal MaidenYadomi
Crystal Maiden
Disruptor
DisruptorWhitemon
58% · 90 games
Game 2prediction correct31:21
TSM 75%Lucky Bird 25%
The model gave 75% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 38:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingTimado
57% · 157 games46% · 34 games
Troll WarlordRises
Troll Warlord
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyerbryle-
54% · 28 games55% · 182 games
PangolierBlackSoul
Pangolier
Primal Beast
Primal Beastkasane
50% · 131 game43% · 104 games
Treant ProtectorYadomi
Treant Protector
Pugna
PugnaAri
50% · 113 games46% · 345 games
TinyWij
Tiny
Clockwerk
ClockwerkWhitemon
50% · 236 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTSM · 88%
Series resultTSM 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2