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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Северная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
TSMwin 2:0
series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Lucky Birdloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TSM

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Ari · 32 games
63%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
kasane · 17 games
47%
Lycan
Lycansignature
kasane · 17 games
71%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
kasane · 15 games
73%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Whitemon · 15 games
47%
Riki
Rikioften banned
Ari · 13 games
54%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
bryle- · 10 games
40%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Ari · 10 games
80%

Lucky Bird

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
BlackSoul · 7 games
43%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
Yadomi · 6 games
17%
Undying
Undyingsignature
empyrean5 · 6 games
67%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Rises · 6 games
17%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Rises · 5 games
20%
Disruptor
Disruptor
empyrean5 · 5 games
80%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Wij · 5 games
0%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Yadomi · 5 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
743 picks · 605 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
547 picks · 472 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
424 picks · 1010 bans
57%
Tiny
Tiny
402 picks · 377 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
398 picks · 964 bans
51%
Doom
Doom
392 picks · 636 bans
54%
Undying
Undying
389 picks · 603 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
381 picks · 205 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 58%
Hero pool strength61% TSM
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total80% TSM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:3
TSM 67%Lucky Bird 33%
The model gave 67% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 22:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingTimado
54% · 44 games53% · 128 games
Alchemistblessed kid
Alchemist
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painbryle-
52% · 14 games42% · 96 games
UnderlordSatoshi-
Underlord
Beastmaster
Beastmasterkasane
57% · 83 games
Rubick
RubickAri
53% · 66 games
Venomancer
VenomancerWhitemon
41% · 17 games
Game 2prediction correct34:8
TSM 64%Lucky Bird 36%
The model gave 64% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 25:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
Doomkasane
56% · 79 games47% · 100 games
Alchemistblessed kid
Alchemist
Medusa
MedusaTimado
62% · 26 games51% · 139 games
BatriderSatoshi-
Batrider
Windranger
Windrangerbryle-
32% · 20 games
Undying
UndyingWhitemon
47% · 91 game
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritAri
54% · 23 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTSM · 80%
Series resultTSM 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2