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ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
TSMwin 2:1
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:1
nounsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TSM

Rubick
Rubick
Ari · 22 games
45%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
kasane · 18 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ari · 15 games
53%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Timado · 13 games
54%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Whitemon · 11 games
73%
Lycan
Lycansignature
kasane · 10 games
70%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Timado · 10 games
70%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
bryle- · 10 games
50%

nouns

Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Lelis · 15 games
67%
Techies
Techiessignature
Husky · 15 games
67%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
YamSun · 10 games
60%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Gunnar · 10 games
60%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
K1 · 8 games
63%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
Lelis · 8 games
38%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakeroften banned
Moo · 8 games
38%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
YamSun · 7 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
237 picks · 109 bans
52%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
235 picks · 280 bans
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
227 picks · 268 bans
51%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
200 picks · 431 bans
63%
Pangolier
Pangolier
199 picks · 420 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
199 picks · 265 bans
47%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
178 picks · 279 bans
47%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
176 picks · 175 bans
60%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 53%
Hero pool strength53% nouns
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total57% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:25
TSM 49%nouns 51%
The model gave 51% on nouns — the game was taken by TSM in 46:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidTimado
55% · 90 games54% · 56 games
LunaYuma
Luna
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakerkasane
51% · 142 games50% · 92 games
Earth SpiritGunnar
Earth Spirit
Dazzle
Dazzlebryle-
57% · 36 games45% · 73 games
WindrangerStormstormer
Windranger
Tusk
TuskImmersion
50% · 119 games48% · 125 games
Shadow DemonLelis
Shadow Demon
Phoenix
PhoenixWhitemon
43% · 116 games51% · 157 games
EnchantressFly
Enchantress
Game 2prediction correct19:34
TSM 47%nouns 53%
The model gave 53% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 1:02:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom LancerTimado
59% · 45 games43% · 101 game
Templar AssassinYuma
Templar Assassin
Necrophos
Necrophosbryle-
57% · 29 games45% · 87 games
InvokerStormstormer
Invoker
Brewmaster
Brewmasterkasane
59% · 87 games50% · 88 games
KunkkaGunnar
Kunkka
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeImmersion
52% · 119 games40% · 139 games
PhoenixFly
Phoenix
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorWhitemon
51% · 222 games48% · 87 games
Skywrath MageLelis
Skywrath Mage
Game 3prediction missed47:16
TSM 44%nouns 56%
The model gave 56% on nouns — the game was taken by TSM in 35:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spectre
SpectreTimado
42% · 61 game49% · 157 games
Templar AssassinYuma
Templar Assassin
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritbryle-
51% · 250 games46% · 121 game
InvokerStormstormer
Invoker
Beastmaster
Beastmasterkasane
55% · 282 games52% · 168 games
Keeper of the LightGunnar
Keeper of the Light
Muerta
MuertaImmersion
48% · 104 games54% · 342 games
ClockwerkLelis
Clockwerk
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorWhitemon
52% · 293 games48% · 202 games
PhoenixFly
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 57%
Series resultTSM 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3