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The International 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
TSMloss 1:1
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 1:1
PSG Questloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TSM

Rubick
Rubick
Ari · 35 games
46%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
kasane · 24 games
54%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ari · 16 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Timado · 16 games
56%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
kasane · 12 games
58%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
bryle- · 12 games
25%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
kasane · 11 games
27%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Whitemon · 11 games
55%

PSG Quest

Rubick
Rubick
OmaR · 34 games
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Kaori · 32 games
75%
Techies
Techiessignature
OmaR · 25 games
68%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Kaori · 21 game
57%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Kaori · 20 games
60%
Mirana
Miranasignature
OmaR · 18 games
78%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 18 games
56%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
No!ob · 18 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
259 picks · 133 bans
42%
Pangolier
Pangolier
201 picks · 413 bans
55%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
198 picks · 263 bans
51%
Sven
Sven
179 picks · 254 bans
57%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
172 picks · 364 bans
51%
Dark Seer
Dark Seer
169 picks · 315 bans
50%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
168 picks · 102 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
167 picks · 227 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 43%
Hero pool strength58% PSG Quest
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% PSG Quest
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:19
TSM 46%PSG Quest 54%
The model gave 54% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by TSM in 46:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingTimado
57% · 145 games53% · 135 games
Naga SirenTA2000
Naga Siren
Dazzle
Dazzlebryle-
50% · 26 games53% · 121 game
Death ProphetNo!ob
Death Prophet
Dark Seer
Dark Seerkasane
47% · 123 games45% · 89 games
TidehunterTobi
Tidehunter
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerAri
46% · 110 games43% · 102 games
HoodwinkOmaR
Hoodwink
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenWhitemon
50% · 132 games57% · 89 games
OracleKaori
Oracle
Game 2prediction correct15:36
TSM 46%PSG Quest 54%
The model gave 54% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 36:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
MuertaTimado
50% · 14 games54% · 9 games
LunaTA2000
Luna
Bristleback
Bristlebackkasane
48% · 11 games54% · 26 games
EarthshakerNo!ob
Earthshaker
Kunkka
Kunkkabryle-
50% · 59 gameslittle data
Lone DruidTobi
Lone Druid
Weaver
WeaverAri
41% · 9 games55% · 46 games
Nature's ProphetKaori
Nature's Prophet
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiWhitemon
39% · 10 games46% · 22 games
HoodwinkOmaR
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoritePSG Quest · 56%
Accuracy by game1 of 2