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ESL One Berlin Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
TSMloss 0:2
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Asterwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TSM

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Ari · 30 games
67%
Lycan
Lycansignature
kasane · 17 games
71%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
kasane · 15 games
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
kasane · 15 games
73%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Whitemon · 14 games
50%
Riki
Rikioften banned
Ari · 12 games
58%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Ari · 10 games
80%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Whitemon · 10 games
60%

Team Aster

Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
BoBoKa · 21 game
71%
Tiny
Tinysignature
BoBoKa · 20 games
70%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Fantasy · 17 games
53%
Rubick
Rubick
BoBoKa · 17 games
41%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Xxs · 16 games
69%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Xwy · 16 games
63%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Xwy · 16 games
63%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Xxs · 14 games
29%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
1005 picks · 707 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
629 picks · 462 bans
52%
Disruptor
Disruptor
583 picks · 428 bans
55%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
560 picks · 905 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
522 picks · 395 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
517 picks · 363 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
510 picks · 1204 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
500 picks · 1096 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 33%
Hero pool strength53% TSM
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total56% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:33
TSM 47%Team Aster 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 35:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
MuertaTimado
34% · 13 games58% · 46 games
AlchemistMonet
Alchemist
Underlord
Underlordkasane
46% · 55 games51% · 73 games
Keeper of the LightSumaiL
Keeper of the Light
Riki
Rikibryle-
59% · 66 games75% · 4 games
AxeXxs
Axe
Enchantress
EnchantressAri
41% · 189 games52% · 87 games
Monkey KingBoBoKa
Monkey King
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterWhitemon
50% · 16 games50% · 129 games
Crystal MaidenFantasy
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction correct10:25
TSM 46%Team Aster 54%
The model gave 54% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 27:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
Beastmasterkasane
51% · 309 games49% · 65 games
MedusaMonet
Medusa
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendbryle-
50% · 86 games46% · 279 games
Ember SpiritSumaiL
Ember Spirit
Phoenix
PhoenixAri
47% · 117 games48% · 76 games
UnderlordXxs
Underlord
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageTimado
46% · 47 games58% · 243 games
MiranaFantasy
Mirana
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenWhitemon
57% · 190 games46% · 86 games
Keeper of the LightBoBoKa
Keeper of the Light
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 56%
Series resultTeam Aster 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2