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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Северная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
TSMwin 2:0
series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team DogChamploss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TSM

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Ari · 17 games
65%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
bryle- · 11 games
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
kasane · 10 games
90%
Riki
Rikioften banned
Ari · 10 games
50%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Whitemon · 10 games
50%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
kasane · 9 games
33%
Lycan
Lycansignature
kasane · 9 games
89%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
bryle- · 9 games
44%

Team DogChamp

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Bloody Nine · 17 games
76%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
RCY · 14 games
57%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Bloody Nine · 11 games
73%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
ITALIANO GANGSTA · 10 games
90%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
RCY · 10 games
80%
Techies
Techiessignature
yarintheslayer · 9 games
67%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Bloody Nine · 9 games
78%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
RCY · 8 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
864 picks · 605 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
618 picks · 429 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
530 picks · 544 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
522 picks · 430 bans
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
518 picks · 830 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
462 picks · 322 bans
46%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
459 picks · 959 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
415 picks · 299 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 72%
Hero pool strength55% Team DogChamp
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total83% TSM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:13
TSM 68%Team DogChamp 32%
The model gave 68% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 29:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerTimado
48% · 101 game54% · 7 games
TinkerRCY
Tinker
Pudge
Pudgebryle-
49% · 91 game49% · 227 games
Death ProphetSunlight
Death Prophet
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctorkasane
59% · 30 games47% · 149 games
Primal BeastFrancisLee
Primal Beast
Io
IoWhitemon
56% · 68 games47% · 215 games
ClockwerkBloody Nine
Clockwerk
Tusk
TuskAri
51% · 308 games
Game 2prediction correct51:46
TSM 69%Team DogChamp 31%
The model gave 69% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 41:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
Alchemistkasane
45% · 50 games45% · 119 games
Keeper of the LightSunlight
Keeper of the Light
Viper
ViperWhitemon
54% · 76 games46% · 90 games
InvokerRCY
Invoker
Underlord
Underlordbryle-
50% · 31 game40% · 43 games
TechiesFrancisLee
Techies
Undying
UndyingTimado
55% · 150 games54% · 265 games
Treant ProtectorBloody Nine
Treant Protector
Tusk
TuskAri
57% · 210 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTSM · 83%
Series resultTSM 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2