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Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
TSMloss 0:2
series probability
13%87%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Liquidwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TSM

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Ari · 41 game
63%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
kasane · 25 games
48%
Lycan
Lycansignature
kasane · 17 games
65%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Whitemon · 16 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
kasane · 14 games
71%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Whitemon · 14 games
64%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Timado · 13 games
69%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ari · 12 games
58%

Team Liquid

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Boxi · 35 games
69%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 25 games
76%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nisha · 25 games
68%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
iNSaNiA · 23 games
78%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
iNSaNiA · 23 games
78%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Nisha · 22 games
68%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekersignature
miCKe · 21 game
67%
Undying
Undyingsignature
iNSaNiA · 21 game
62%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
639 picks · 691 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
490 picks · 323 bans
47%
Doom
Doom
454 picks · 991 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
397 picks · 860 bans
49%
Batrider
Batrider
395 picks · 938 bans
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
392 picks · 353 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
381 picks · 1011 bans
57%
Pugna
Pugna
378 picks · 450 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)27% vs 50%
Hero pool strength57% Team Liquid
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total87% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:37
TSM 25%Team Liquid 75%
The model gave 75% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 41:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerTimado
48% · 154 games48% · 178 games
Templar AssassinNisha
Templar Assassin
Snapfire
Snapfirebryle-
46% · 269 games57% · 270 games
Monkey KingmiCKe
Monkey King
Visage
Visagekasane
51% · 93 games51% · 266 games
Timbersawzai
Timbersaw
Rubick
RubickAri
46% · 437 games58% · 67 games
OracleBoxi
Oracle
Lich
LichWhitemon
49% · 113 games48% · 285 games
Crystal MaideniNSaNiA
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction correct22:33
TSM 25%Team Liquid 75%
The model gave 75% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 46:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingTimado
50% · 312 games50% · 146 games
LycanmiCKe
Lycan
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magikasane
37% · 33 games45% · 127 games
Queen of PainNisha
Queen of Pain
Primal Beast
Primal Beastbryle-
53% · 345 games57% · 122 games
Dark Seerzai
Dark Seer
Enchantress
EnchantressAri
48% · 314 games51% · 388 games
ClockwerkiNSaNiA
Clockwerk
Undying
UndyingWhitemon
48% · 412 games53% · 633 games
RubickBoxi
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 87%
Series resultTeam Liquid 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2