GAMERS GALAXY: Invitational Series Dubai 2022 · BO1
result vs prediction
TSMloss 0:1series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Tundra Esportswin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
TSM
Bane
DuBu · 15 games
Storm Spiritsignature
bryle- · 10 games
Weaversignature
MoonMeander · 10 games
Mirana
MoonMeander · 7 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
MoonMeander · 7 games
Morphlingsignature
Timado · 7 games
Pangolieroften banned
SabeRLight- · 7 games
Tidehuntersignature
SabeRLight- · 7 games
Tundra Esports
Banesignature
Fata · 16 games
Wraith Kingsignature
Skiter · 13 games
Gyrocopter
Fata · 11 games
Queen of Painsignature
Nine · 11 games
Doomsignature
33 · 10 games
Spirit Breakersignature
Sneyking · 9 games
Weaversignature
Sneyking · 9 games
Dark Seersignature
33 · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
541 picks · 363 bans
Queen of Pain
476 picks · 576 bans
Mars
439 picks · 592 bans
Weaver
416 picks · 733 bans
Kunkka
349 picks · 539 bans
Spirit Breaker
342 picks · 574 bans
Snapfire
335 picks · 168 bans
Wraith King
280 picks · 353 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 64%
Hero pool strength53% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct6:27
TSM 47%Tundra Esports 53%
The model gave 53% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 17:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkkabryle-
SvenSkiter
Vengeful SpiritSabeRLight-
Sand King33
Elder TitanMoonMeander
PangolierNine
GrimstrokeDuBu
HoodwinkSaksa
Troll WarlordTimado
IoSneyking
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 57%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1