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ESL One Malaysia 2022. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
TSMwin 2:0
series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Wildcard Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TSM

Bane
Banesignature
DuBu · 18 games
72%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
MoonMeander · 13 games
54%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
bryle- · 12 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
bryle- · 11 games
64%
Tiny
Tiny
Timado · 11 games
45%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
Timado · 10 games
90%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
SabeRLight- · 10 games
70%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
DuBu · 10 games
80%

Wildcard Gaming

Snapfire
Snapfire
The Warden · 19 games
26%
Tiny
Tiny
iAnnihilate · 15 games
53%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
The Warden · 13 games
69%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Sunlight · 13 games
31%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
Ark · 12 games
67%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
The Warden · 12 games
67%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Sunlight · 11 games
64%
Puck
Puckoften banned
iAnnihilate · 11 games
36%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
620 picks · 467 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
432 picks · 940 bans
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
361 picks · 187 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
358 picks · 586 bans
47%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
353 picks · 411 bans
46%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
337 picks · 457 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
316 picks · 196 bans
57%
Marci
Marci
306 picks · 608 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 52%
Hero pool strength59% TSM
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total72% TSM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:20
TSM 72%Wildcard Gaming 28%
The model gave 72% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 34:32.
Game 2prediction correct35:8
TSM 72%Wildcard Gaming 28%
The model gave 72% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 28:27.
Model check result
Model favoriteTSM · 72%
Series resultTSM 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2