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ESL One Bangkok 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 1:2
AVULUSwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
33 · 31 game
65%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Whitemon · 30 games
63%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Whitemon · 28 games
54%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 27 games
78%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Saksa · 26 games
65%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Whitemon · 25 games
68%
Mars
Marssignature
RAMZES666 · 24 games
75%
Broodmother
Broodmothersignature
33 · 23 games
70%

AVULUS

Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 23 games
74%
Lion
Lionsignature
Ekki · 23 games
74%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
SoNNeikO · 23 games
65%
Puck
Pucksignature
Stormstormer · 21 game
67%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Xibbe · 19 games
74%
Tusk
Tusksignature
SoNNeikO · 19 games
74%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Smiling Knight · 18 games
78%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Stormstormer · 18 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
445 picks · 591 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
383 picks · 404 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
331 picks · 468 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
328 picks · 397 bans
54%
Enchantress
Enchantress
308 picks · 592 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
292 picks · 158 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
284 picks · 336 bans
53%
Sand King
Sand King
267 picks · 785 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 64%
Hero pool strength51% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total75% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed8:28
Tundra Esports 61%AVULUS 39%
The model gave 61% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by AVULUS in 31:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendNightfall
43% · 125 games51% · 155 games
BristlebackSmiling Knight
Bristleback
Beastmaster
Beastmaster33
45% · 158 games55% · 297 games
Storm SpiritStormstormer
Storm Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierLorenof
47% · 361 game59% · 88 games
DawnbreakerXibbe
Dawnbreaker
Hoodwink
HoodwinkSaksa
47% · 296 games51% · 277 games
LionEkki
Lion
Clockwerk
ClockwerkWhitemon
42% · 220 games59% · 343 games
Shadow DemonSoNNeikO
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct30:6
Tundra Esports 64%AVULUS 36%
The model gave 64% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 29:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaNightfall
57% · 64 games47% · 71 game
TidehunterXibbe
Tidehunter
Beastmaster
Beastmaster33
45% · 138 games46% · 114 games
MedusaSmiling Knight
Medusa
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritLorenof
45% · 164 games53% · 126 games
InvokerStormstormer
Invoker
Chen
ChenWhitemon
60% · 109 games53% · 242 games
Shadow DemonSoNNeikO
Shadow Demon
Tusk
TuskSaksa
45% · 233 games49% · 155 games
LionEkki
Lion
Game 3prediction missed32:54
Tundra Esports 63%AVULUS 37%
The model gave 63% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by AVULUS in 1:04:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenNightfall
50% · 158 games56% · 130 games
Monkey KingSmiling Knight
Monkey King
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritLorenof
52% · 161 game53% · 41 game
EarthshakerStormstormer
Earthshaker
Beastmaster
Beastmaster33
48% · 150 games52% · 101 game
EnigmaXibbe
Enigma
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinSaksa
54% · 56 games47% · 251 game
BatriderEkki
Batrider
Pugna
PugnaWhitemon
39% · 94 games51% · 96 games
ChenSoNNeikO
Chen
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 75%
Series resultAVULUS 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3