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The Bali Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
series probability
89%11%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Blacklist Internationalloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 34 games
62%
Mirana
Mirana
Sneyking · 33 games
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
33 · 32 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 31 game
71%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 25 games
60%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Saksa · 23 games
70%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Sneyking · 22 games
59%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Nine · 21 game
67%

Blacklist International

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
674 picks · 452 bans
47%
Techies
Techies
633 picks · 670 bans
55%
Doom
Doom
571 picks · 1116 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
498 picks · 1233 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
497 picks · 1039 bans
49%
Disruptor
Disruptor
496 picks · 475 bans
51%
Enchantress
Enchantress
458 picks · 707 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
435 picks · 917 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 53%
Hero pool strength57% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total89% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:16
Tundra Esports 89%Blacklist International 11%
The model gave 89% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 50:02.
Game 2prediction correct25:8
Tundra Esports 89%Blacklist International 11%
The model gave 89% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 37:15.
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 89%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2