The International 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 1:1series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Cloud9loss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tundra Esports
Rubicksignature
9Class · 38 games
Techiessignature
Whitemon · 33 games
Morphlingoften banned
Pure~ · 28 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Whitemon · 27 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Tobi · 26 games
Snipersignature
Topson · 25 games
Batridersignature
9Class · 23 games
Lunasignature
Pure~ · 23 games
Cloud9
Centaur Warrunnersignature
DM · 38 games
Banesignature
Fishman · 26 games
Brewmastersignature
DM · 20 games
Disruptorsignature
Fishman · 17 games
Grimstrokesignature
Kataomi · 17 games
Leshracoften banned
No[o]ne · 16 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Kataomi · 16 games
Svensignature
Fishman · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
409 picks · 379 bans
Hoodwink
384 picks · 427 bans
Pangolier
369 picks · 534 bans
Jakiro
345 picks · 256 bans
Weaver
333 picks · 740 bans
Ember Spirit
316 picks · 642 bans
Tiny
314 picks · 753 bans
Phoenix
310 picks · 644 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Cloud9
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:16
Tundra Esports 51%Cloud9 49%
The model gave 51% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 41:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WindrangerPure~
Templar AssassinWatson
InvokerTopson
LeshracNo[o]ne
MarsRAMZES666
TinkerKataomi
MiranaSaksa
Centaur WarrunnerDM
MarciWhitemon
SvenFishman
Game 2prediction correct18:22
Tundra Esports 50%Cloud9 50%
The model gave 50% on Cloud9 — the game was taken by Cloud9 in 33:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightPure~
LunaWatson
DazzleTopson
Monkey KingNo[o]ne
SlardarRAMZES666
TinkerKataomi
SniperSaksa
UnderlordDM
Shadow DemonWhitemon
BaneFishman
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 52%
Accuracy by game2 of 2