Gamers8 Riyadh Masters · BO2
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:0series probability
95%5%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Deboostersloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tundra Esports
Chaos Knightsignature
Skiter · 24 games
Doomoften banned
33 · 22 games
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 19 games
Beastmastersignature
33 · 16 games
Iosignature
Sneyking · 16 games
Visagesignature
33 · 16 games
Grimstrokesignature
Sneyking · 14 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Skiter · 13 games
Deboosters
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Malik · 2 games
Alchemistoften banned
lil pleb · 1 game
Elder Titan
Malik · 1 game
Faceless Voidoften banned
lil pleb · 1 game
Medusaoften banned
lil pleb · 1 game
Monkey Kingoften banned
lil pleb · 1 game
Razoroften banned
Malik · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
583 picks · 444 bans
Puck
410 picks · 883 bans
Mars
383 picks · 598 bans
Dragon Knight
363 picks · 475 bans
Snapfire
347 picks · 178 bans
Bane
327 picks · 219 bans
Dawnbreaker
300 picks · 356 bans
Ember Spirit
299 picks · 579 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 33%
Hero pool strength69% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total95% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:14
Tundra Esports 82%Deboosters 18%
The model gave 82% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 29:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
KunkkaNine
Bloodseekerlil pleb
Nature's ProphetDaxak
Elder TitanMalik
LifestealerSkiter
TinySaksa
DazzleSneyking
Game 2prediction correct37:8
Tundra Esports 82%Deboosters 18%
The model gave 82% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 24:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BloodseekerSkiter
BristlebackMalik
Nature's ProphetDaxak
Monkey Kinglil pleb
SnapfireNine
PhoenixSneyking
ClockwerkSaksa
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 95%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2