Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:1series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Entityloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tundra Esports
Chaos Knightsignature
Skiter · 23 games
Doomoften banned
33 · 22 games
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 19 games
Iosignature
Sneyking · 17 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Skiter · 15 games
Weaversignature
Sneyking · 15 games
Beastmastersignature
33 · 14 games
Visagesignature
33 · 14 games
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
502 picks · 436 bans
Mars
465 picks · 693 bans
Dragon Knight
431 picks · 536 bans
Bane
429 picks · 289 bans
Pangolier
368 picks · 599 bans
Storm Spirit
366 picks · 588 bans
Sand King
338 picks · 502 bans
Keeper of the Light
336 picks · 765 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 65%
Hero pool strength62% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total68% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:31
Tundra Esports 68%Entity 32%
The model gave 68% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Entity in 42:52.
Game 2prediction correct29:10
Tundra Esports 68%Entity 32%
The model gave 68% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 27:56.
Game 3prediction correct27:12
Tundra Esports 68%Entity 32%
The model gave 68% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 32:22.
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 68%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3