The International 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:0series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Entityloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tundra Esports
Doomsignature
33 · 26 games
Chaos Knightsignature
Skiter · 25 games
Visagesignature
33 · 19 games
Beastmastersignature
33 · 18 games
Tinysignature
Saksa · 16 games
Snapfiresignature
Saksa · 15 games
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 14 games
Grimstrokesignature
Sneyking · 13 games
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
532 picks · 401 bans
Marci
473 picks · 721 bans
Death Prophet
305 picks · 478 bans
Undying
304 picks · 514 bans
Puck
294 picks · 696 bans
Dawnbreaker
282 picks · 396 bans
Enigma
270 picks · 855 bans
Pangolier
264 picks · 365 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)30% vs 50%
Hero pool strength62% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total57% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:11
Tundra Esports 57%Entity 43%
The model gave 57% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 30:23.
Game 2prediction correct27:26
Tundra Esports 57%Entity 43%
The model gave 57% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 40:55.
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 57%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2