Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Западная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 1:2series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Entitywin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tundra Esports
Miranasignature
Sneyking · 14 games
Tinysignature
Saksa · 14 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Sneyking · 13 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
Skiter · 12 games
Visagesignature
33 · 12 games
Naga Sirensignature
Skiter · 11 games
Tusksignature
Nine · 11 games
Doomsignature
33 · 10 games
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
385 picks · 371 bans
Tiny
340 picks · 348 bans
Rubick
312 picks · 222 bans
Mirana
275 picks · 277 bans
Crystal Maiden
203 picks · 148 bans
Snapfire
198 picks · 109 bans
Treant Protector
193 picks · 253 bans
Pangolier
186 picks · 512 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)73% vs 42%
Hero pool strength61% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total74% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:6
Tundra Esports 74%Entity 26%
The model gave 74% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 35:19.
Game 2prediction missed12:53
Tundra Esports 74%Entity 26%
The model gave 74% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Entity in 47:56.
Game 3prediction missed12:33
Tundra Esports 74%Entity 26%
The model gave 74% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Entity in 42:47.
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 74%
Series resultEntity 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3