Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Западная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:0series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Entityloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tundra Esports
Beastmasteroften banned
33 · 31 game
Mirana
Sneyking · 31 game
Doomsignature
33 · 27 games
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 24 games
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 23 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Nine · 21 game
Snapfiresignature
Saksa · 21 game
Undyingsignature
Sneyking · 21 game
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
765 picks · 606 bans
Disruptor
548 picks · 460 bans
Tiny
423 picks · 379 bans
Beastmaster
422 picks · 989 bans
Ember Spirit
396 picks · 926 bans
Undying
394 picks · 596 bans
Nature's Prophet
393 picks · 670 bans
Doom
389 picks · 571 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 38%
Hero pool strength58% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head4 – 3
Model total77% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:5
Tundra Esports 77%Entity 23%
The model gave 77% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 25:58.
Game 2prediction correct36:21
Tundra Esports 77%Entity 23%
The model gave 77% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 29:36.
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 77%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2