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DreamLeague Season 23 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:1
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Entityloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Techies
Techiessignature
9Class · 19 games
79%
Tiny
Tinysignature
9Class · 13 games
69%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Topson · 12 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
MinD_ContRoL · 11 games
82%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Topson · 11 games
55%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Whitemon · 11 games
45%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Pure~ · 9 games
67%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Whitemon · 9 games
78%

Entity

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
390 picks · 641 bans
56%
Lion
Lion
383 picks · 355 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
376 picks · 607 bans
54%
Techies
Techies
370 picks · 305 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
357 picks · 768 bans
56%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
349 picks · 348 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
339 picks · 389 bans
55%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
333 picks · 202 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 60%
Hero pool strength60% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head5 – 1
Model total54% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed43:42
Tundra Esports 54%Entity 46%
The model gave 54% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Entity in 1:12:12.
Game 2prediction correct32:22
Tundra Esports 54%Entity 46%
The model gave 54% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 1:03:23.
Game 3prediction correct32:20
Tundra Esports 54%Entity 46%
The model gave 54% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 40:08.
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 54%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3