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DreamLeague Season 19 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:1
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Evil Geniusesloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Mirana
Miranasignature
Sneyking · 36 games
64%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
33 · 27 games
52%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 22 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 21 game
71%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Sneyking · 21 game
62%
Riki
Rikisignature
Saksa · 19 games
79%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Nine · 18 games
72%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Saksa · 18 games
72%

Evil Geniuses

Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Chris Luck · 24 games
71%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Panda · 21 game
71%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Chris Luck · 21 game
67%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Wisper · 20 games
75%
Riki
Rikisignature
Matthew · 19 games
74%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 18 games
61%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Matthew · 15 games
47%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Wisper · 14 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
1002 picks · 689 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
652 picks · 480 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
602 picks · 953 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
555 picks · 433 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
532 picks · 361 bans
45%
Disruptor
Disruptor
526 picks · 381 bans
56%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
516 picks · 1188 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
502 picks · 378 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 55%
Hero pool strength52% Evil Geniuses
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total52% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:11
Tundra Esports 47%Evil Geniuses 53%
The model gave 53% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 42:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaSkiter
53% · 83 games50% · 295 games
DoomPakazs
Doom
Lycan
Lycan33
54% · 118 games47% · 201 game
Templar AssassinChris Luck
Templar Assassin
Pangolier
PangolierNine
53% · 308 games42% · 255 games
MarsWisper
Mars
Enchantress
EnchantressSneyking
51% · 189 games53% · 206 games
SilencerPanda
Silencer
Snapfire
SnapfireAramis
46% · 313 games52% · 54 games
LionMatthew
Lion
Game 2prediction correct14:40
Tundra Esports 49%Evil Geniuses 51%
The model gave 51% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 40:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lycan
Lycan33
47% · 138 games52% · 169 games
TerrorbladePakazs
Terrorblade
Abaddon
AbaddonSkiter
45% · 79 games50% · 175 games
DoomWisper
Doom
Zeus
ZeusNine
50% · 166 games47% · 163 games
BatriderChris Luck
Batrider
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightAramis
48% · 248 games58% · 216 games
DisruptorPanda
Disruptor
Mirana
MiranaSneyking
52% · 469 games50% · 377 games
RubickMatthew
Rubick
Game 3prediction missed14:6
Tundra Esports 47%Evil Geniuses 53%
The model gave 53% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 28:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeSkiter
52% · 202 games58% · 73 games
LunaPakazs
Luna
Tidehunter
Tidehunter33
49% · 69 games54% · 252 games
DoomWisper
Doom
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightNine
52% · 154 games49% · 376 games
Death ProphetChris Luck
Death Prophet
Enchantress
EnchantressSneyking
48% · 185 games48% · 34 games
LionMatthew
Lion
Snapfire
SnapfireAramis
41% · 305 games50% · 180 games
SilencerPanda
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 52%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3