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The International 2024 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Rubick
Rubicksignature
9Class · 38 games
63%
Techies
Techiessignature
Whitemon · 33 games
76%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pure~ · 30 games
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Whitemon · 27 games
59%
Sniper
Snipersignature
Topson · 27 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Tobi · 26 games
62%
Luna
Lunasignature
Pure~ · 25 games
76%
Batrider
Batridersignature
9Class · 23 games
61%

Gaimin Gladiators

Sniper
Sniper
Quinn · 25 games
56%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
dyrachyo · 23 games
78%
Broodmother
Broodmothersignature
Ace · 19 games
63%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 19 games
63%
Clinkz
Clinkzsignature
dyrachyo · 17 games
76%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Seleri · 17 games
41%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Quinn · 16 games
81%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
tOfu · 16 games
69%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
403 picks · 366 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
380 picks · 415 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
357 picks · 540 bans
48%
Jakiro
Jakiro
343 picks · 256 bans
47%
Phoenix
Phoenix
310 picks · 534 bans
49%
Weaver
Weaver
308 picks · 674 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
303 picks · 622 bans
50%
Sven
Sven
297 picks · 310 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 54%
Hero pool strength51% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total52% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed8:29
Tundra Esports 52%Gaimin Gladiators 48%
The model gave 52% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 32:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistTopson
44% · 64 games56% · 147 games
Storm SpiritQuinn
Storm Spirit
Luna
LunaPure~
48% · 108 games48% · 30 games
Lone Druiddyrachyo
Lone Druid
Mars
MarsRAMZES666
57% · 108 games39% · 55 games
BroodmotherAce
Broodmother
Enchantress
EnchantressSaksa
41% · 136 games55% · 108 games
ChenSeleri
Chen
Elder Titan
Elder TitanWhitemon
56% · 60 games52% · 136 games
MiranatOfu
Mirana
Game 2prediction correct3:27
Tundra Esports 50%Gaimin Gladiators 50%
The model gave 50% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 24:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckTopson
55% · 103 games52% · 114 games
Alchemistdyrachyo
Alchemist
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerPure~
57% · 3 games54% · 38 games
Sand KingQuinn
Sand King
Kunkka
KunkkaRAMZES666
46% · 87 games48% · 36 games
UnderlordAce
Underlord
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonSaksa
55% · 133 games56% · 107 games
EnigmaSeleri
Enigma
Tusk
TuskWhitemon
37% · 77 games46% · 108 games
SnapfiretOfu
Snapfire
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 52%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2