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BLAST Slam II · BO5
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 3:0
series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 3:0
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 0:3
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Saksa · 32 games
63%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Whitemon · 32 games
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Whitemon · 31 game
61%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 30 games
77%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
33 · 27 games
67%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
33 · 27 games
63%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 25 games
68%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Whitemon · 24 games
67%

Gaimin Gladiators

Muerta
Muertasignature
tOfu · 26 games
62%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Seleri · 15 games
33%
Mirana
Mirana
tOfu · 15 games
53%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Watson · 15 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 15 games
60%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Seleri · 14 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Ace · 14 games
43%
Lich
Lichsignature
Seleri · 14 games
79%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
490 picks · 634 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
469 picks · 404 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
461 picks · 585 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
453 picks · 553 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
435 picks · 503 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
421 picks · 790 bans
56%
Magnus
Magnus
412 picks · 920 bans
58%
Lion
Lion
397 picks · 234 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 56%
Hero pool strength57% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head6 – 3
Model total74% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:12
Tundra Esports 65%Gaimin Gladiators 35%
The model gave 65% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 33:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterdyrachyo
52% · 342 games51% · 68 games
MarciWatson
Marci
Lycan
Lycan33
56% · 71 game42% · 264 games
BeastmasterAce
Beastmaster
Tiny
Tinybzm
52% · 409 games51% · 214 games
InvokerQuinn
Invoker
Pugna
PugnaWhitemon
53% · 164 games49% · 60 games
IoSeleri
Io
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterSaksa
52% · 39 games45% · 419 games
BatridertOfu
Batrider
Game 2prediction correct30:24
Tundra Esports 64%Gaimin Gladiators 36%
The model gave 64% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 39:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightdyrachyo
54% · 335 games53% · 625 games
TinyWatson
Tiny
Doom
Doom33
50% · 273 games46% · 205 games
LinaQuinn
Lina
Invoker
Invokerbzm
52% · 196 games47% · 192 games
DawnbreakerAce
Dawnbreaker
Batrider
BatriderSaksa
48% · 379 games46% · 351 game
MuertatOfu
Muerta
Phoenix
PhoenixWhitemon
43% · 386 games59% · 196 games
Ogre MagiSeleri
Ogre Magi
Game 3prediction correct37:7
Tundra Esports 65%Gaimin Gladiators 35%
The model gave 65% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 25:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritbzm
50% · 136 games48% · 409 games
GyrocopterWatson
Gyrocopter
Sand King
Sand King33
49% · 92 games54% · 89 games
BroodmotherAce
Broodmother
Lifestealer
Lifestealerdyrachyo
42% · 99 games49% · 115 games
Queen of PainQuinn
Queen of Pain
Clockwerk
ClockwerkSaksa
51% · 246 games53% · 52 games
Bounty HuntertOfu
Bounty Hunter
Batrider
BatriderWhitemon
49% · 288 games53% · 196 games
PugnaSeleri
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 74%
Series resultTundra Esports 3:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3