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ESL One Birmingham 2026 · BO2
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 1:1
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 1:1
GamerLegionloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Batrider
Batridersignature
Ari · 42 games
64%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Whitemon · 29 games
62%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Ari · 29 games
76%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 27 games
74%
Bane
Banesignature
Whitemon · 26 games
77%
Tiny
Tinysignature
bzm · 25 games
72%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Ari · 24 games
67%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
33 · 24 games
67%

GamerLegion

Chen
Chenoften banned
Speeed · 20 games
55%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Speeed · 19 games
53%
Warlock
Warlock
Speeed · 18 games
44%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fayde · 17 games
59%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Bignum · 17 games
41%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Bignum · 14 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
RCY · 13 games
23%
Viper
Viperoften banned
YamSun · 13 games
54%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
662 picks · 821 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
572 picks · 591 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
471 picks · 409 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
468 picks · 314 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
414 picks · 1073 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
389 picks · 694 bans
59%
Mars
Mars
382 picks · 622 bans
47%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
382 picks · 992 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 43%
Hero pool strength59% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total65% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:33
Tundra Esports 59%GamerLegion 41%
The model gave 59% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 40:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
Timbersaw33
52% · 219 games50% · 127 games
KezShad
Kez
Tiny
Tinybzm
43% · 652 games55% · 465 games
Ember SpiritRCY
Ember Spirit
Beastmaster
BeastmasterPure~
44% · 388 games48% · 220 games
UnderlordFayde
Underlord
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightAri
55% · 159 games48% · 496 games
WarlockSpeeed
Warlock
Phoenix
PhoenixWhitemon
52% · 277 games55% · 387 games
Shadow ShamanBignum
Shadow Shaman
Game 2prediction missed25:54
Tundra Esports 59%GamerLegion 41%
The model gave 59% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by GamerLegion in 33:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidPure~
53% · 89 games51% · 120 games
KezRCY
Kez
Invoker
Invokerbzm
50% · 145 games55% · 280 games
Shadow FiendShad
Shadow Fiend
Axe
Axe33
42% · 193 games60% · 87 games
EnigmaFayde
Enigma
Jakiro
JakiroWhitemon
45% · 519 games46% · 525 games
TinyBignum
Tiny
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanAri
46% · 361 game54% · 295 games
BatriderSpeeed
Batrider
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 65%
Accuracy by game1 of 2