Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Европа 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:1series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Hellbear Smashersloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tundra Esports
Ursaoften banned
Skiter · 4 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
Skiter · 4 games
Crystal Maiden
Fata · 3 games
Dark Seeroften banned
33 · 3 games
Grimstroke
Fata · 3 games
Puckoften banned
Fata · 3 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Nine · 3 games
Abaddon
33 · 2 games
Hellbear Smashers
Invokersignature
Stormstormer · 17 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Ace · 15 games
Pucksignature
Stormstormer · 14 games
Beastmastersignature
MISERY · 13 games
Wraith Kingsignature
Ace · 13 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Stormstormer · 12 games
Earthshakersignature
Gilgir · 11 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Gilgir · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
431 picks · 944 bans
Void Spirit
407 picks · 581 bans
Death Prophet
360 picks · 666 bans
Mars
333 picks · 585 bans
Earth Spirit
303 picks · 272 bans
Tusk
267 picks · 178 bans
Phoenix
258 picks · 375 bans
Grimstroke
251 picks · 215 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 71%
Hero pool strength63% Hellbear Smashers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Hellbear Smashers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:25
Tundra Esports 37%Hellbear Smashers 63%
The model gave 63% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 32:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll WarlordSkiter
Wraith KingAce
BeastmasterNine
InvokerStormstormer
Dark Seer33
DazzleMISERY
Spirit BreakerSneyking
PhoenixtOfu
GyrocopterFata
Bounty HunterGilgir
Game 2prediction missed30:15
Tundra Esports 36%Hellbear Smashers 64%
The model gave 64% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 43:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LifestealerSkiter
Wraith KingAce
Earth SpiritNine
EnigmaMISERY
Beastmaster33
PuckStormstormer
AbaddonFata
PhoenixtOfu
LionSneyking
Nyx AssassinGilgir
Game 3prediction missed39:16
Tundra Esports 36%Hellbear Smashers 64%
The model gave 64% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 36:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
JuggernautSkiter
Wraith KingAce
Doom33
LeshracStormstormer
PuckNine
Legion CommanderMISERY
LionSneyking
RubickGilgir
GyrocopterFata
GrimstroketOfu
Model check result
Model favoriteHellbear Smashers · 72%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3