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PGL Wallachia 2024 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Heroicwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Rubick
Rubick
9Class · 25 games
52%
Mars
Marssignature
RAMZES666 · 24 games
75%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Whitemon · 23 games
61%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pure~ · 20 games
50%
Sniper
Snipersignature
Topson · 19 games
63%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
9Class · 17 games
47%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Topson · 17 games
71%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
Pure~ · 16 games
50%

Heroic

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Scofield · 26 games
54%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkoften banned
Scofield · 21 game
57%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Scofield · 16 games
63%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
KJ · 14 games
43%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
K1 · 13 games
46%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Scofield · 13 games
69%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Davai · 12 games
25%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
KJ · 12 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
341 picks · 291 bans
53%
Jakiro
Jakiro
331 picks · 253 bans
45%
Pangolier
Pangolier
327 picks · 432 bans
48%
Enchantress
Enchantress
312 picks · 528 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
301 picks · 289 bans
50%
Windranger
Windranger
296 picks · 424 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
294 picks · 473 bans
46%
Sand King
Sand King
291 picks · 795 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 41%
Hero pool strength55% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total75% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed6:24
Tundra Esports 63%Heroic 37%
The model gave 63% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Heroic in 26:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendShad
50% · 66 games50% · 142 games
LunaParker
Luna
Puck
PuckMidOne
48% · 181 game46% · 99 games
BeastmasterDavai
Beastmaster
Sand King
Sand King33
52% · 101 game68% · 14 games
Huskar4nalog
Huskar
Pugna
PugnaSaksa
47% · 78 games47% · 152 games
HoodwinkScofield
Hoodwink
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterWhitemon
47% · 13 games59% · 32 games
OmniknightKJ
Omniknight
Game 2prediction correct35:21
Tundra Esports 63%Heroic 37%
The model gave 63% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 41:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaShad
50% · 93 games52% · 202 games
LunaParker
Luna
Puck
PuckMidOne
50% · 261 game49% · 76 games
Sniper4nalog
Sniper
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterSaksa
58% · 18 games50% · 152 games
MarsDavai
Mars
Dark Seer
Dark Seer33
51% · 167 games48% · 181 game
Dark WillowScofield
Dark Willow
Clockwerk
ClockwerkWhitemon
49% · 236 games50% · 164 games
PhoenixKJ
Phoenix
Game 3prediction missed40:42
Tundra Esports 65%Heroic 35%
The model gave 65% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Heroic in 46:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerShad
57% · 132 games41% · 203 games
GyrocopterParker
Gyrocopter
Puck
PuckMidOne
58% · 184 games47% · 147 games
Alchemist4nalog
Alchemist
Sand King
Sand King33
58% · 85 games50% · 99 games
UnderlordDavai
Underlord
Tusk
TuskSaksa
40% · 166 games54% · 160 games
LionScofield
Lion
Enchantress
EnchantressWhitemon
48% · 258 games49% · 216 games
ClockwerkKJ
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 75%
Series resultHeroic 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3