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PGL Wallachia Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
series probability
91%9%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Heroicloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
33 · 44 games
64%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 42 games
81%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
33 · 32 games
53%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Whitemon · 31 game
81%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
bzm · 30 games
73%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 30 games
70%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
33 · 28 games
71%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Saksa · 28 games
61%

Heroic

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 25 games
60%
Muerta
Muerta
Scofield · 25 games
52%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Wisper · 24 games
63%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
KJ · 21 game
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Wisper · 19 games
47%
Lion
Lion
Scofield · 19 games
53%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
4nalog · 18 games
50%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
4nalog · 15 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
477 picks · 710 bans
51%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
385 picks · 749 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
357 picks · 359 bans
52%
Muerta
Muerta
357 picks · 213 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
340 picks · 657 bans
50%
Bristleback
Bristleback
339 picks · 671 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
319 picks · 426 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
318 picks · 495 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 39%
Hero pool strength58% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head7 – 3
Model total91% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:9
Tundra Esports 76%Heroic 24%
The model gave 76% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 27:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dark Seer
Dark Seer33
46% · 189 games52% · 150 games
UrsaYuma
Ursa
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeCrystallis
41% · 185 games56% · 94 games
Kunkka4nalog
Kunkka
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritbzm
52% · 238 games59% · 115 games
EnigmaWisper
Enigma
Tinker
TinkerWhitemon
40% · 45 games54% · 350 games
TinyScofield
Tiny
Tusk
TuskSaksa
47% · 251 game50% · 199 games
EnchantressKJ
Enchantress
Game 2prediction correct31:19
Tundra Esports 78%Heroic 22%
The model gave 78% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 46:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerCrystallis
45% · 28 games50% · 168 games
MorphlingYuma
Morphling
Sand King
Sand King33
55% · 242 games48% · 86 games
BrewmasterWisper
Brewmaster
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritbzm
53% · 241 game49% · 68 games
Kunkka4nalog
Kunkka
Slark
SlarkSaksa
46% · 73 games48% · 149 games
Shadow DemonKJ
Shadow Demon
Ringmaster
RingmasterWhitemon
51% · 95 games50% · 208 games
JakiroScofield
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 91%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2