Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Европа 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:0series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
High Coast Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tundra Esports
No games played over 6 months.
High Coast Esports
Shadow Demonoften banned
Xibbe · 5 games
Marsoften banned
Chessie · 4 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Era · 4 games
Skywrath Mage
Era · 4 games
Earth Spirit
Era · 3 games
Invokeroften banned
Supream^ · 3 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Xibbe · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Charlie · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
123 picks · 231 bans
Puck
122 picks · 279 bans
Earth Spirit
109 picks · 90 bans
Void Spirit
101 picks · 157 bans
Phoenix
97 picks · 101 bans
Nyx Assassin
79 picks · 276 bans
Rubick
79 picks · 37 bans
Keeper of the Light
76 picks · 147 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 33%
Hero pool strength58% High Coast Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% High Coast Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:14
Tundra Esports 50%High Coast Esports 50%
The model gave 50% on High Coast Esports — the game was taken by High Coast Esports in 32:36.
Game 2prediction correct9:37
Tundra Esports 50%High Coast Esports 50%
The model gave 50% on High Coast Esports — the game was taken by High Coast Esports in 30:17.
Model check result
Model favoriteHigh Coast Esports · 50%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2