PGL Wallachia 2024 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:0series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:0
LFLooking for Orgloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tundra Esports
Rubick
9Class · 27 games
Marssignature
RAMZES666 · 24 games
Clockwerk
Whitemon · 22 games
Morphlingoften banned
Pure~ · 20 games
Snipersignature
Topson · 20 games
Batrideroften banned
9Class · 17 games
Techies
Whitemon · 17 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
RAMZES666 · 16 games
Looking for Org
Snapfire
Matthew · 12 games
Marsoften banned
DarkMago · 10 games
Enchantresssignature
Yadomi · 8 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Mnz · 8 games
Lunasignature
Mnz · 7 games
Omniknightoften banned
Yadomi · 7 games
Doomoften banned
Sacred · 5 games
Kunkkaoften banned
DarkMago · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
341 picks · 254 bans
Snapfire
340 picks · 282 bans
Pangolier
331 picks · 436 bans
Enchantress
307 picks · 518 bans
Rubick
305 picks · 297 bans
Hoodwink
303 picks · 346 bans
Windranger
303 picks · 433 bans
Dragon Knight
301 picks · 479 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 64%
Hero pool strength51% Looking for Org
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:16
Tundra Esports 63%Looking for Org 37%
The model gave 63% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 37:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendShad
SvenMnz
Bristleback33
Sand KingDarkMago
Queen of PainMidOne
DoomSacred
BatriderSaksa
EnchantressYadomi
Naga SirenWhitemon
Shadow DemonMatthew
Game 2prediction correct35:8
Tundra Esports 65%Looking for Org 35%
The model gave 65% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 24:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendShad
GyrocopterMnz
Sand King33
MarsDarkMago
PangolierMidOne
BrewmasterSacred
EnchantressSaksa
Shadow DemonMatthew
TuskWhitemon
ClockwerkYadomi
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 77%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2